- The SEC’s refusal to appeal its decision to approve an XRP ETF in Spot raises hopes for issuers such as 21Shares, Bitwise, and Grayscale, waiting for approval.
- Bitcoin’s recent price rally above $85,000 was supported by healthy institutional demand via BTC-spot ETFs, erasing previous losses amid weak February and March inflows.
- Ripple’s legal fate and macroeconomic considerations such as US trade policies and the Bitcoin Act will be instrumental in determining XRP and BTC market trends.
XRP ETF : The SEC’s move to drop its appeal against the XRP ruling has enhancing expectations of an XRP-spot ETF. Dispelling legal doubt regarding XRP’s secondary market sales may allow the SEC to approve outstanding applications from issuers such as 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree.
While the final approval deadline is October 2025, the SEC may approve the XRP ETF in advance. Market expectations have shifted, with Polymarket now showing an 87% chance of approval by December 2025, increasing from 77% before Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse made his comment.
There was also increased probability for first-half approval 2025 rising from 33% to 46%. When approved, an XRP ETF in spot would prompt tremendous institutional appetite, as evidenced by Bitcoin’s 51% spike following BTC-spot ETF approval.
XRP ETF’s Demand and Market Movements
XRP recently rose 2.95% to $2.4410, marking a reversal of a small drop the day before yesterday. This rise came while Bitcoin also broke above $85,000 and propelled the entire crypto market cap to $2.76 trillion.
Increased demand for BTC-spot ETFs supported Bitcoin’s recovery from its low on March 11 at $76,642. The BTC-spot ETF market also experienced six straight days of inflows, its longest sequence since January.
Weaker institutional demand in February and March had previously weakened Bitcoin. The concerns regarding Trump’s Executive Order on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve also had an impact.
But with the reintroduction of the Bitcoin Act by Senator Cynthia Lummis, market sentiment may turn positive if passed by Congress. This bill has the US government purchasing one million BTC over a five-year time period with a compulsory 20-year holding requirement.
Bitcoin settled at $86,117 after gaining 2.74%, undoing a slight fall the previous day. If political opposition to the Bitcoin Act or economic issues develop, Bitcoin may drop to $70,000. Alternatively, robust economic data, decreasing geopolitical tensions, and sustained ETF inflows might drive BTC to $109,312. The market will closely monitor these indicators in the months ahead.
Factors Shaping XRP’s Future
XRP ETF will rest on several factors, such as Ripple’s cross-appeal plan. Settlement or resolution would propel XRP beyond its all-time high of $3.5505 in 2018, but continuing legal battles can temper momentum.
The likelihood of XRP ETF in Spot approval also has a large role. When an ETF is approved by the SEC, XRP can come near to its former high. But regulatory delays or issues could affect investor sentiment.
General economic risks like trade tensions and recession fears might impact the price of XRP to fall to its February low at $1.7938.
Some major developments might determine the direction of the crypto space in the near term. A favorable resolution for Ripple in its lawsuit could help the wider market. Changes in US tariff policies and Federal Reserve moves might also influence investor mood.
The creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would also push institutional adoption further. Finally, ongoing BTC-spot ETF inflows are still a strong marker of market confidence.
Although the SEC ruling on XRP has alleviated near-term concerns, long-term investor confidence will hinge on more transparent regulatory policies.
